Case Description: 8 February 2019
Summary
Many convective initiations over the site
Description
Multiple convective initiations occur within the immediate region of the AMF starting at 17:30 that result in four systems near the AMF by 20 UTC that then merge into a single system by 21:30. All mesoscale ensembles capture the phase but dramatically underestimate the magnitude of the upscale growth, potentially due to the coarse resolution used. CAPE values are at the threshold between the top and middle third of their ranges (at 18 UTC MUCAPE=3212; MLCAPE=2375 kg-1).
Available assets
CSAPR2 (goes down part way through event), GOES rapid scan
Unavailable: CSU C-Band, G1, RELAMPAGO data
Critical period: 17:30–21:30
Available LES ensemble members
Impression |
Ensemble Member |
Cloud Behavior |
---|---|---|
Bust |
EDA03 |
CSI Skill less than half of respective meso run. Only develops southern system and no northern or central systems. |
Acceptable |
EDA03-Morr |
CSI Skill is very good and much better than respective meso run. Cell at southern domain edge overdeveloped but very good run until 19:30 UTC when errant cell starts over the AMF and the morphology in the northern cell deviates from observed, but not badly. |
Bust |
EDA08 |
Convection initiates hours late and weaker when it oes, albeit in about the right places. |