Case Description: 29 November 2018
Summary
Convective initiation with halted upscale growth
Description
Early-day convection clears out of the region by 14 UTC and a line of convective initiations starts to form roughly along the ridgeline by 16 UTC. Two convective initiations occur very close to the AMF but die out shortly after 18 UTC, presenting a case where the upscale growth halts. Both CAPE values are in the lower third of their ranges (at 15 UTC MUCAPE=1470; MLCAPE=632 J kg-1).
Available assets
CSAPR2, G1 flight, GOES rapid scan, RELAMPAGO mission (30 soundings), CSU C-Band data
Critical period: 17:00–19:00
Available LES ensemble members
Impression |
Ensemble Member |
Cloud Behavior |
---|---|---|
Bust |
GEFS00 |
Does not get convective initiation around the AMF, only at the outer southern edge of the domain. |
Bust |
GEFS03 |
Essentially no initiation. LES CSI Skill a third of the meso value. |
Acceptable |
GEFS09 |
Initiation displaced a bit south, but morphs pretty well. Model lingers too long after the critical period with okay CSI Skill of 0.3. (Does not have the errant northern system that the respective meso run has.) |